Statistical Implications – Public Awareness About Amending the Constitution?

April 28th, 2009 by Jesse Smith

When a user completes one of our fine Political IQ tests, their gain from the experience is rather straightforward. They receive the instant satisfaction of a Political IQ score that evaluates their performance relative to others, and while I would imagine this pursuit is done purely out of self-interest, you and I also stand to learn something every time one of these diagnostics is completed, albeit less directly. Here’s how it works:

When a test is finished, the selected question answer-choices are recorded (anonymously mind you) and stored in our database. Hypothetically, lets imagine that the database had recorded 1,000 unique responses to a particular Political IQ question. Now, because each of our questions test for a user’s awareness of relevant facts - like say, the fact that the real growth-rate of the U.S. GDP in 2008 was 1.1% - the response data can be extrapolated as a measure of public awareness regarding the question topic.

For example, suppose a question asking for the actual 2008 U.S. GDP growth-rate offers four possible answer-choices - 0.1%, 1.1%, 2.1% and 3.1% - and out of 1,000 total respondents only 1 out of every 4 select the correct sum, 1.1%. Since we know that if a person randomly guessed the answer 1,000 times they would guess correctly about 1 out of 4 times, we can already conclude that practically no respondents had possessed much knowledge of the correct figure beforehand. With a little further analysis of a question we can gain all sorts of insights about which facts are typically common knowledge and which are not.

However, the correlation between our our test-taking sample and say ‘the average American’ remains extremely unclear. For the time being, I am under the impression that any person who has not only found our website but has also elected to take a particular P.I.Q. test is quite likely to be more knowledgeable than the “average person” when it comes to a selected political test topic.

That being said, there is still plenty to take away from the data. To demonstrate, let’s take a look at a question dealing with the constitutional amendment process:

Question ID#26

Question #26: Since its adoption, the Constitution has contained the highest laws of the United States. However, in order to stay relevant the Constitution provides a mechanism for changing these laws. Describe this mechanism:

1: The Supreme Court may rule in opposition to the Constitution, effectively negating the provision in question.

2: The Constitution can be modified with amendments, which must be voted on by the states.

3: Congress can propose and ratify legislation to overrule the Constitution.

4: Only the President can propose legislation to overrule the Constitution; however Congress must pass any bills.

Even though the sample is small, there is actually quite a bit we can take away from the responses. First off, of the 122 that answered, over 80% got the correct answer, which for this question means they either A) possessed the necessary knowledge about the amendment process, B) possessed the necessary knowledge about the Constitution, or C) guessed correctly. While we can only speculate as to how each user achieved the correct answer in this case, we know for certain that those who answered incorrectly were below the minimum threshold of relevant facts needed to determine the correct answer.

So, if we can first determine the minimum information that one would need to be aware of in order to answer a question, we could then deduce how well-known that information must have been, and possibly extend that reasoning to a reflection of public awareness. In this question, for example, we know that users who answered incorrectly must have had little to no knowledge whatsoever of the amendment process directly. If neither the word “amendment” nor the additional hint that they must be voted on by the states was enough to convince the user to choice answer-choice two then it is safe to reason that the individual had practically no knowledge of the constitutional amendment process outside of what the question prompt had told them already.

If we divert our attention over to the actual text of the false answer-choices, you’ll notice that they all share the theme of change by way of overruling the Constitution, whereas the correct answer does not, rather correctly implying change from within the framework of the Constitution. Now, while this difference may seem subtle it is in fact quite meaningful. The Constitution is the highest law of the land and it cannot (never ever!) be overruled, doing so would be to invalidate the entire U.S. legal system.

What can happen, something that might seem like overruling the Constitution, would be to amend the Constitution with a law that modifies, or even nullifies, certain past legal practices. The most obvious example of this happening occurred with the passing of the 18th and 21st Amendments, the first of which passed the Prohibition Act while the latter rescinded it. So, even without having a clue about constitutional amendments I could still have answered the question correctly if I had known, with conviction, that the Constitution could not be legally overruled.

Conclusions: 24 out of 122 responses were distributed between the three incorrect answer-choices, indicating that those 24 respondents did not know the constitutional fact, it further suggests that approximately 8 more individuals (24/3) happened to blindly guess the correct answer-choice. Thus, out of the 98 that answered correctly, approximately 90 had enough knowledge of the facts to know that 2) was the right answer.

90/122 = 73.7%, more than 7 out of 10 test-takers have an understanding of the amendment process.

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